Confidence among CEOs has remained higher for a longer period
than at any other time in the past ten years, according to a survey of
1,541 small- to mid-sized business owners. The survey, which took
place from March 9 to March 18, 2015, provides a clear snapshot of
current economic, market and industry trends.
The Vistage Confidence Index was 105.8 in the 1st quarter of 2015,
between the 107.5 in the 4th quarter and 101.3 in the 1st quarter of
2014. The recent survey represented the eighth consecutive year-to-year
increase, a new record for the persistence of optimism. The small
1st quarter loss involved all components, although none registered a
significant decline. The stability in CEOs’ confidence stands in sharp
contrast to the slowdown in the pace of economic growth at yearend,
which has persisted into the 1st quarter of 2015. Confidence
in the underlying strength of the economy has been maintained
undiminished despite a number of factors: a harsh winter, a tightening
labor market, rising wage pressures, weakening export demand, and
a pending shift in Fed policy. To be sure, some of these trends reflect
the growing strength of the U.S. economy. Overall, firms anticipate
that the economy will continue to make substantial progress, with
a resurgence in growth as the year progresses.
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2q2014CEO confidence index tjk
Vistage-Q2-2014-Infographic TJK
The latest Vistage survey found that CEOs continued to
feel confident about today’s economy, as the Vistage
CEO Confidence Index was virtually unchanged from the
levels recorded in the prior two quarters. The Vistage CEO
Confidence Index was 101.0 in the 2nd quarter 2014 survey,
nearly identical with the 101.3 in the 1st quarter and the
101.5 in the 4th quarter of 2013. This was the best three quarter
performance since 2005. The constancy of economic
optimism is all the more surprising given the drop in GDP
during the 1st quarter, indicating that CEOs discounted last
quarter’s decline as an aberration due to the harsh winter.